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Part 2: Recent Trends in Merchandise Exports

To grasp the nuances and various categories of exports originating from Australia. This second article will break down the key merchandise exported from Australia and conduct a trend analysis on the categories in recent years.

Merchandise Categories

The following pie chart indicates the proportion in which various categories of goods that were exported in 2020

The visualisation indicates the largest export categories, which are the crude materials. This category forms 47.2% of all exports and is consisted of iron ore and rare metals. The second largest category is the mineral fuels at 27.8%. This includes fossil fuels such as coal and LNG. The category ranked third are food and live animals with 11.1%. This includes agricultural output from Australia such as wheat and live cattle.

20 Year Trend in Export Categories

The next line chart plots the changes in the export categories throughout the last 20 years.

It is clear from trendlines that crude materials and mineral fuels, ever since 2004, have long exceeded the export volumes of the remaining categories. While every category has seen continued growth, none have matched that of the two aforementioned groups. The growth in the two largest groups stalled between 2011 and 2016, and this period was matched by a phase of low GDP growth.

One significant observation occurred following 2016, the crude materials saw a 54% increase from AU$99 billion to AU$152 billion. Meanwhile mineral fuels increased from AU$68 billion, it peaked in 2019 at AU$126 billion, increasing by 85%, before plummeting to AU$90 billion, a 30% decrease. This discrepancy may be the result of two factors: one consideration is the increased infrastructure spending in Australia’s largest export partner China, which is preceded by a greater appetite for iron ore to produce steel. A second factor which resulted in the lower demand for mineral fuels is that the world began its transition away from fossil fuels, driven by more environmental awareness.

5 Year Trend in Export Categories

The final visualisation is a stacked bar chart illustrates the aggregated effects of the different categories of exports.

The important findings are the driving factors behind the quantity of merchandise exports peaking in 2019, and subsequently decreasing in 2020. While crude materials saw continued growth, all other classes of goods decreased from the previous year, this drop was led by the lower mineral fuel. The likely cause being the start of COVID-19 in 2020. The pandemic saw business closures and lockdowns as a preventative health measure, and delays in shipping. All these factors contributed to the lower export quantity in 2020.

Key findings

  • The largest two category of Australian exports in 2020 are crude materials (47.2%) and mineral fuels (27.8%).
  • The demand for crude materials continued to increase into 2020, while the quantity of mineral fuels exported topped out in 2019, before falling sharply in 2020.
  • The volume of exports peaked in 2019, the likely culprit being the supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic.